Ranked: The Most Likely Star Wars Movies to Actually Get Made Next

Star Wars reality check: which announced films are actually likely to move from press release to production next?

If you’re exhausted by rumor piles, half-finished scripts and Lucasfilm slide decks that never translate into theaters, you’re not alone. Fans want one central place for a sanity-checked assessment of which Star Wars movies are more likely to actually get made next — not wishful thinking. Below we cut through the noise and rank five high-profile projects (Mangold, Waititi, Rey, Lando, Ben Solo) by probability, using hard production indicators and the latest 2026 developments.

Quick take (most important first)

Short verdict: Donald Glover’s Lando ranks highest on probability, followed by the Rey standalone and Taika Waititi’s movie. James Mangold’s Dawn of the Jedi and the Ben Solo (Soderbergh/Driver) film look far less likely in the near term.

How we measured likelihood: the insider indicator checklist

To move beyond conjecture we scored each project against a repeatable set of production indicators that insiders and trades use to predict greenlights. These are the objective signals that matter in 2026:

• Script status — Is there a finished draft? Multiple drafts? Script turnaround matters most.
• Talent attachment — Are the star(s) and director actively attached and publicly engaged?
• Public commitments — Announcements at Star Wars Celebration, official Lucasfilm statements, and trade quotes.
• Leadership backing — Support from Lucasfilm leadership and Disney executives; impacted in early 2026 by Kathleen Kennedy’s exit.
• Budget & scope — Practicality of production cost and timeline (period epics and world-building are riskier).
• Studio strategy — Is Disney prioritizing theatrical or streaming? Are resources shifting to TV?
• Talent availability — Scheduling conflicts, competing projects and director/actor pipeline.
• Public momentum — Fan anticipation, social momentum, and press attention.

Ranked: Likelihood that each Star Wars film will actually get made next (with percentage odds)

Below’s a ranked list from most to least likely, with a short rationale and the key indicators that pushed each score one way or another.

1) Donald Glover’s Lando — 70%

Why it ranks highest: Several trade reports through late 2025 and early 2026 indicate a finished script and Glover’s continued public interest. Donald Glover is a bankable multi-hyphenate (actor-writer-producer) and the character carries franchise recognition without the expensive cosmic worldbuilding of a Jedi origin tale.

• Script status: Reported finished drafts in 2025 (trade coverage noted completed scripting work).
• Talent attachment: Donald Glover is publicly attached and has been vocal about the project in past interviews.
• Budget & scope: Mid-range — can be executed as an elevated heist/character piece with targeted VFX.
• Studio strategy: Fits Disney’s appetite for legacy characters that deliver brand familiarity and merchandising upside.

Insider signal: a finished script + star attachment is one of the clearest greenlight predictors. Expect production to accelerate if the incoming Lucasfilm leadership signals intent to prioritize theatrical returns over a crowded TV slate.

2) Rey standalone (Daisy Ridley + Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy) — 55%

Why this is in the mix: This project has the strongest fan-profile: Daisy Ridley attached, public announcement at Star Wars Celebration 2023, and a director (Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy) announced on-stage. That level of public commitment usually portends higher odds than projects that never got an announcement. But there are red flags.

• Script status: Unclear publicly; early development reportedly ongoing since the 2023 announcement.
• Public commitments: High — announced with fanfare in 2023, which creates political pressure to proceed.
• Leadership backing: Curiously absent from outgoing president Kathleen Kennedy’s recent recounting of the slate as she left the post in early 2026 — that omission is a negative signal.
• Budget & scope: Potentially large if the story involves rebuilding a Jedi order, but workable as an intimate character-driven arc.

Insider signal: public announcement + star attachment keeps this alive. However, the omission from Kennedy’s 2026 exit interview list (reported by outlets covering Lucasfilm leadership changes) suggests the incoming regime may re-evaluate priorities. That creates a middling probability: strong fan momentum but internal uncertainty.

3) Taika Waititi’s Star Wars film — 50%

Why it’s middle-of-the-pack: Taika Waititi remains a creative wild card who can bring box-office surprise and critical attention. Early reporting suggests there’s a finished script, and Waititi has the cache to be given freedom. But Waititi’s busy schedule and Disney’s cautiousness make this a risky bet.

• Script status: Reportedly a completed draft as of late 2025, per trade reporting.
• Talent attachment: Waititi is attached as director; however, he tends to move between projects and formats.
• Studio strategy: Disney likes Waititi’s brand, but his tonal risks (irreverence inside a sacred franchise) may push execs to delay until a clear marketing strategy exists.

Insider signal: finished script is a positive. But expect conditional greenlight terms — Disney may ask the filmmaker to retool for franchise fit or reserve it for streaming if theatrical risk is deemed high.

4) James Mangold — Dawn of the Jedi (25%)

Why this is low-probability now: Mangold’s origin-of-the-Jedi concept is massive in scope and reportedly an “incredible” script, but Lucasfilm told Deadline in early 2026 that it’s “on hold.” A large, lore-deep period epic is expensive and complicated creatively — and those are two things studios trim first when they re-prioritize.

• Script status: Strong — praised as an “incredible” script per Kathleen Kennedy’s 2026 comments — but that alone isn’t enough.
• Leadership backing: Specifically called out as “on hold” in Kennedy’s exit interview with Deadline, which is a clear negative.
• Budget & scope: Very high — period epic, heavy VFX, extensive worldbuilding; such films require both financial and strategic commitment.
• Studio strategy: If Disney pivots to lower-risk franchise entries and Disney+ TV, a project like this becomes a long-term play rather than an immediate production.

Insider signal: high script quality but explicit “on hold” status and high cost push this far down the immediate production queue. It could return under a future regime if they want epic reinvention, but don’t expect cameras rolling anytime soon.

5) Ben Solo (Steven Soderbergh + Adam Driver) — 15%

Why this looks most unlikely: This project has fascinated fans because of the pairing of Soderbergh and Adam Driver, and a finished script was reported — but even that level of creative pedigree didn’t prevent Disney from shelving the idea previously. In her 2026 exit interview, Kathleen Kennedy said that, like Mangold, Soderbergh’s Ben Solo movie is on the “back burner.”

• Script status: Reportedly completed by Scott Burns in an earlier development cycle, but studio enthusiasm has waned.
• Studio decision history: Earlier pushback and reports that Disney effectively nixed the project are major negatives.
• Talent availability: Adam Driver remains a sought-after actor, but Soderbergh’s interest in non-franchise cinema could complicate commitment.

Insider signal: finished script but prior nixes and repeated “back burner” labeling make this the least likely film in the immediate pipeline. It could live as an indie-flavored spinoff someday, but not under current corporate priorities.

What the 2026 Lucasfilm leadership shuffle means

Late 2025 into early 2026 has been a turning point. Kathleen Kennedy’s exit and the ascension of new leadership at Lucasfilm changes the calculus. Leadership transition is a production gating factor: new execs re-audit pipelines, reassign development resources and often delay or cancel projects to recalibrate strategy.

“We’re pretty far along,” Kennedy said in prior years about the slate — but in her 2026 exit interview she also labeled several projects as 'on hold' or 'back burner.' That dual message is an important reality check.

What that means for the five projects above: public announcements and scripts help, but leadership will favor projects that promise reliable returns and fit a clear distribution plan. In 2026 that increasingly means: tight theatrical windows for tentpole, prioritizing streaming series for long-form storytelling, and favoring projects with built-in franchise leverage.

Practical, actionable advice for fans who want to stay ahead of real news (not rumors)

Here’s a list of concrete, repeatable tactics you can use to track these five projects reliably.

1. Follow trade outlets and cross-check — Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Polygon are primary sources for greenlight indicators. Treat fan tweets as tips and trades as primary verification.
2. Set Google Alerts and RSS feeds for project names + “filming,” “greenlit,” “cast,” “script,” and “Lucasfilm.” Configure alerts to highlight trade outlets first.
3. Watch union filings — Directors Guild, WGA and SAG-AFTRA notices often precede official announcements. Filming notices and production company registrations are hard signals.
4. Follow the talent intelligently — Director and star social media can be telling. Look for casting photos, travel posts that align with production sites, or agents' press releases.
5. Track Disney investor communications — When Disney signals strategic priority (theatrical vs streaming) in earnings calls and investor decks, it impacts project likelihood immediately.
6. Read leadership transitions closely — New studio heads normally re-prioritize within the first 6–12 months; projects without explicit re-commitment in that window are at risk.
7. Use IMDbPro and production databases — They update with production statuses, filming start dates and studio notices before fan wikis catch up.

Scenario timelines: when could these actually film (if greenlit)?

Here’s a pragmatic window for each project if a greenlight happens soon (based on average prep and VFX timelines in 2026):

• Lando: 12–24 months from greenlight to release. Mid-budget, character-driven — faster prep and postci.
• Rey: 18–30 months. Dependent on scope (character drama vs Jedi-rebuilding epic).
• Waititi: 18–30 months. Dependent on Waititi’s schedule; could be fast if prioritized.
• Mangold: 30–48+ months. Massive worldbuilding and visual effects pipeline make timelines long.
• Ben Solo: 24–36 months — but only if the project is revived from the back burner.

How Disney’s broader 2026 strategy shapes these odds

In 2026 Disney’s strategic focus is more data-driven and risk-averse than in the early blockbuster years. Three trends to watch:

• Streaming economics vs theatrical tentpoles — Disney balances expensive tentpoles with Disney+ originals that stretch IP across seasons. Smaller, character-driven movies (like a Lando caper) can be a sweet spot.
• Consolidation of franchises — Executives favor projects that support streaming series tie-ins, merchandise, and theme park potential.
• Leadership resets — New Lucasfilm leadership will prune and prioritize; expect slower, more deliberate greenlights for expensive, lore-heavy experiments.

Final takeaways — what to expect next

The most actionable forecast: Expect Donald Glover’s Lando to be the first of these five to break ground if studios move forward. The Rey film has a decent shot because of its public anchor (Daisy Ridley + Celebration announcement) but watch for an official recommitment from the new Lucasfilm leadership. Taika Waititi’s film is creatively probable but logistically uncertain. Mangold’s Dawn of the Jedi and Soderbergh’s Ben Solo are both high-concept projects that have slipped into the “long game” — they can return, but not quickly.

For fans and industry watchers: the single most reliable indicator is movement from “script completed” to a formal production notice or union filing. Anything short of that is still development-stage speculation.

Call to action

Want a weekly, trade-verified roundup of the Star Wars projects that are actually moving toward production? Subscribe to our newsletter for concise alerts, production-signal analysis and an insider-tuned tracker that cuts through fan noise. Drop a comment below: which of these five do you want made most — and which do you think is dead on arrival?

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